landslides in the early hours of July 30 in Wayanad will go down in Kerala’s history as one of the worst natural disasters the state has faced. It’s a calamity that has claimed over 200 lives, as per official data on Saturday morning, with the final figure expected to be much higher, razed homes and traumatised a society that still carries the scars of past disasters. In the aftermath of the tragedy, as a political blame game ensues between the Centre and the state, one of the immediate questions is to what extent the landslides could have been predicted and their effects mitigated.
The other is, what can we do to contain the damage to life when—and not if—such phenomena recur, with climate change and human intervention exacerbating disasters? While landslides are very tricky to predict, it can be done as some other countries have shown, says M Rajeevan. The vice-chancellor of Atria University, Bengaluru, he is former secretary at the Ministry of Earth Sciences and former director of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
In an interview with Indulekha Aravind, he says, “It’s not an easy problem to solve, but if we don’t do it, who will?” Edited excerpts:
Compared with other natural disasters, are landslides more difficult to predict?
Landslides are usually difficult to predict compared with other systems like tropical cyclones, heavy rains, or thunderstorms. Normally, landslides occur due to heavy rain and when the soil on slopes becomes loose and comes down. But it’s not that every heavy rainfall event