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Mint, even during the Russia-Ukraine crisis, crude prices initially surged but eventually moderated as markets adjusted.He added that apart from geopolitical tensions, key risks for Indian markets include global liquidity conditions, movements in crude oil prices, and the availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and oil, as rising household energy costs could disrupt consumption momentum. Edited excerpts:Markets typically react first to headlines and then gradually reassess fundamentals.

Write to Shaina Mishkin at [email protected] WeekOn Monday, day 10 of the war in Iran, Gulf states cut oil output, global prices surged over $100 a barrel, and G-7 finance ministers met to discus the largest release of oil reserves ever. Iran named the late Ayatollah Khamenei’s son supreme leader. Stocks plunged, then reversed after President Trump said the war wouldn’t last “very long.” But stocks fell again as oil rose, despite the reserve release and U.S.

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Coal India Ltd’s shares hit a new 52-week high of ₹467.90 on the NSE on Thursday, gaining over 4% when the Nifty 50 index declined 0.5%, possibly on expectations of higher prices at its e-auctions as global coal prices rise due to the West Asia conflict.The flare-up in oil and gas prices is spilling over to the international coal market, too. Higher global coal prices would hurt domestic import volumes and push CIL’s e-auction premiums and offtake higher.The state-owned company sells some of its output through e-auctions at market-determined prices, in addition to fuel supply agreements (FSA) with power producers.

Springing a surprise, US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a plan for what he called America’s first new refinery in half-a-century, backed by investment from India’s Reliance. To be built by America First Refining, it is part of a deal whose value Trump put at $300 billion, calling it the biggest in US history.“Thank you to our partners in India, and their largest privately held Energy Company, Reliance, for this tremendous Investment,” he said in a Truth Social post.

Write to Benoit Faucon at [email protected] all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.

If proof were needed that even after decades of globalization, the world isn’t flat, Iran’s chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz is providing plenty. The opposing view might be summarized in four words, ‘The Revenge of Geography,’ the title of geopolitical analyst Robert Kaplan’s prescient book more than a decade ago.

These are sombre times for the world. The big conflict in West Asia is giving everyone the jitters. For readers of a business paper, the main questions would be related to its impact on markets.

₹60 per 14.2 kg cylinder, taking them to the highest level since 29 August 2023.According to Nomura, every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices could shave 15 basis points off India’s growth and add 50 basis points to retail inflation. With oil prices already up nearly $50 per barrel since the start of the year, the impact on India’s growth-inflation dynamics could be significant.The Iran conflict could prove more disruptive to oil markets beyond the initial price spike than the Russia-Ukraine war.

A subtle twist in the tale: The strength of the US dollar as measured by the Dollar Index (DXY) peaked at 114 in September 2022, a 20-year high. It has been falling since then, hitting 97 on 28 February 2026, the start of the Iran war. DXY measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of currencies.

crisis in West Asia intensifying, there is lacklustre sentiment among both importers and exporters due to higher freight costs and logistical uncertainties. Things are likely to be clear in due course of time," said Vikas Jain, proprietor, Osho Marketing House, a Delhi-based export firm.“Though global wheat prices have increased, it could have been a good opportunity for Indian farmers and traders to earn better returns through exports.

In international relations, manifestly illegal government action can sometimes be morally defensible. While historical examples of legitimacy trumping legality are few and far between, they do exist.

Russian oil imports have received a free pass for a month, markets are spooked. And reasonably so.Higher crude means higher landed inflation, a wider current account deficit, and pressure on the rupee – all headwinds for corporate earnings, which had only just started staging a recovery. And markets have reacted accordingly – Nifty 50 index dropped almost 3% last week, matching the declines seen in the midcap and smallcap spaces.However, markets are never one-dimensional.

New Delhi: Facing supply disruption from West Asia, the Indian government has directed all state-run and private-sector refineries in the country to step up production of domestic cooking gas by diverting feedstock away from the manufacturing of non-essential products, including petrochemicals.Using its powers under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955, the ministry has directed all refiners to supply LPG to the three state-owned refiners – Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd – which will in turn supply it only to domestic consumers of cooking gas.The development is significant as India has only about 25 days of LPG stock. Annual demand stands at 33.15 million tonnes, with imports servicing about 75-80% of this.

South Korea’s 16% stock plunge this past week. In the U.S., any inflation uptick could deprive investors of more interest-rate cuts. Or perhaps worse, the Federal Reserve could cut rates later this year, and depending on the circumstances, be judged by the bond market as giving President Donald Trump what he wants, but not necessarily giving the economy what it needs.A quick and tidy exit in Iran is no sure thing.

Mint, citing low prices, adequate strategic reserves, and the government’s ability to cushion fuel shocks from spilling into retail prices.In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation, under a revised data series, stood at around 2.75%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4%.With inflation currently subdued and a newly introduced CPI series indicating broadly similar trends to the old base-year data, the economists said the starting point itself provides a strong buffer against external shocks, likely preventing any immediate pressure on retail inflation or RBI's monetary policy outlook.For 2025-26, the RBI has projected CPI inflation at 2.1%, with the March quarter at 3.2%. Inflation for the June and September quarters is seen at 4% and 4.2%, respectively, suggesting the current price environment is far more benign than during previous geopolitical shocks.“I think the starting point is more comfortable for RBI at this juncture, given that inflation is more manageable now compared with the Russia-Ukraine war, when global commodity prices surged sharply,” Anubhuti Sahay, head of India economic research at Standard Chartered Bank, said.Sahay added that policymakers are unlikely to rush to revise projections or change the policy stance until there is greater clarity on how long the war will last and how significantly it will disrupt global energy markets.

Could India be returning to Russia for oil supplies? Going by a Bloomberg report, it seems so. Two shipments of Russian crude oil that were originally headed for East Asia have reportedly been redirected towards India and are expected to unload this week, with one already having reached Paradip.

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Oil and its derivatives account for 40-70% of raw material costs of these sectors, which leaves (their) margins vulnerable to rising crude prices,” said Devarsh Vakil, head of prime research at HDFC Securities.Indian markets have faced similar pressure before. When Brent crude surged 73% to a peak of $130 per barrel between December 2021 and March 2022, shortly after the Russia-Ukraine war began, India Inc.’s profit margins came under swift pressure.A Mint analysis of Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data shows that operating profit margins of oil refiners, rubber product makers, tyre and tube manufacturers, and paint companies compressed by an average 140 basis points between the December quarter of FY22 and the June quarter of FY23.While most sectors began to feel mild pressure as early as Q4FY22, the squeeze peaked for rubber products and tyre and tube makers in Q1FY23.

oil and petro-products to deal with short-term disruptions. The Union ministry of petroleum and natural gas has formed a 24×7 control room to continuously monitor the supply and stock position across the country.State-run oil marketing companies (OMCs)—Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corp.