Donald Trump News

Investors have grown accustomed to the idea that US President Donald Trump-induced shocks rarely last long, because, as the popular TACO acronym tells us, ‘Trump Always Chickens Out.’ But the American president’s decision to join Israel in starting a war with Iran has opened a geopolitical and macroeconomic Pandora’s box that may make a tidy walk-back impossible. Under the surface, financial markets are starting to take note.The ‘TACO regime’ in American stocks—under which every selloff was a buying opportunity—may be over. That thesis will now get a test after Trump postponed threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants for five days, pending the outcome of what he said were talks with Iran to end the war.

small-cap schemes has risen sharply over the past year, reflecting thinning volumes and weaker market depth.The largest fund in the category, Nippon India Small Cap Fund, required 44 days—up 13 days from a year ago—to sell half its portfolio if faced with redemption pressure. The Quant Small Cap Fund saw the steepest increase, with liquidation time rising by 31 days to 87 days, while the HDFC Small Cap Fund and the SBI Small Cap Fund took 71 and 66 days, up 9 and 4 days, respectively.This is when the benchmark BSE Smallcap 250 Index has declined only moderately—6.2% in January, compared with a 10.3% fall in January 2025—suggesting the underlying stress is more structural: lower participation and waning risk appetite are making exits harder, particularly in a downtrend when small caps tend to underperform broader markets.The BSE Sensex declined 3.5% in January, compared with a 1% fall in the same month last year.Exchange data showed India’s overall market capitalization shrank by ₹21.35 trillion from an all-time high of ₹482 trillion at the start of January.

The randomness of Donald Trump’s tariffs has underscored that a state of flux for businesses is the only constant. That this has been inflicted by one of the chief architects of the World Trade Organization (WTO)’s rules of global trade is ironic, as it has left us with this mockery of a rules-based order.Last April, the US President alleged that foreign trade and economic practices had created a national emergency and imposed tariffs across imports from all countries. Ten months later, the US Supreme Court ruled that they were unlawful.

A silver lining seems to have appeared around the clouds of war over West Asia. Donald Trump put off by five days the US threat of bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure just hours before his 48-hour deadline was to expire for Iranian forces to open the Strait of Hormuz.The US President cited “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of hostilities in the Middle East” between the US and Iran over the past two days as the reason for his decision.

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Don ko samajana mushkil hi nahi namumkin bhi hai (Understanding Don is not just difficult, but impossible), quipped market veteran Nilesh Shah, MD of Kotak Mahindra AMC, as conflicting statements on the Iran war emanated from US President Donald Trump over the weekend.Inspired by a dialogue from the 1978 Amitabh Bachchan starrer Don, it encapsulates the uncertainty among India's investors and traders amid frequent changes in President Trump's stance on the conflict's objectives and duration.In a post on Truth Social on Friday, the US President said he was considering ‘winding down’ military operations in the Middle East after getting ‘very close’ to meeting the US' objectives.While investors could see this as a positive sign, they would again be flummoxed by Trump's plan to deploy more troops to the region, explained Shah.Hapless investors and traders have sought to deal with frequent flip-flops preceding Trump's latest comments by initiating an options strategy that enables them to profit from sharp market movements in either direction.Known as a long straddle in options parlance, the strategy aims to profit from a steep move in the Nifty on either side of 23100 by this Monday or Tuesday.This is borne by a 58% rise in open or outstanding positions on the 23100 call and a 79% rise in the 23100 put, per National Stock Exchange (NSE) data as of Friday closing.The market closed at 23114.5 on Friday (20 March), down 8.2% over the past three weeks since the war began.

The international system is entering a phase that increasingly resembles an earlier era of geopolitics—one defined less by shared rules and more by competing spheres of influence. Signals emerging from Washington’s strategic thinking, particularly during the presidency of Donald Trump, point to a worldview in which power, leverage and bilateral bargaining take precedence over the norms and institutions that have guided global governance for decades.With the next Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO) approaching, the future of multilateralism is in the spotlight.

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In 1945, at World War II’s close, the economist Albert O. Hirschman published National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade, in which he analyzed how nation-states shape trade patterns to their strategic advantage. The book sank like a stone.

Beneath the stated justifications of any war in history—righteous causes, nuclear threats, regime changes—the bedrock truth is the same. Conflict is and has always been a quest for resources. The Iran war is merely the latest chapter.

₹74,795.57 crore in the month through 17 March, according to National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data.That works out to an average daily sale of ₹6,799.59 crore over 11 sessions of the month. If the FPI selling for the remaining eight days continues with the same intensity, March would clock ₹1.29 trillion, higher than the record ₹1.14 trillion FPI outflows seen in October 2024.The average daily FPI outflow in October 2024 was ₹5,175 crore .The record selling that month was induced by rising US bond yields, over concerns of global tariff wars following a likely Republican victory in the US presidential elections.

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What is an economy for? Since Adam Smith, economists have given a straightforward answer to this question: the economy increases our consumption possibilities. A well-functioning economy is one that offers a widening array of ever-more affordable goods and services, from food and consumer items to housing and transportation.

A Tomahawk missile is more than four times the height of an Iranian child. It can carry a 400kg warhead and fly at the speed of a commercial aircraft over 2,000km. It can even fly just 30-50 metres above the ground.

Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. US President Donald Trump warned that oil infrastructure on the island could be next if Iran disrupted shipping in the region.Facing adversaries that far outstrip it in firepower and military might, Iran appears to have chosen its targets carefully.The first is international fuel supplies.Iran has attacked at least 16 ships in the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on 28 February.

Mint asked how deep the present correction could run.The Nifty has fallen 9.5% from its record high of 26,373.2 on 5 January this year to 23,866.85 on Wednesday.On Thursday, the index was down around 1%.The benchmark index had hit a low of 21,743.65 on 7 April last year, six months after touching a record 26,277.35 on 27 September 2024. The 17% drawdown came after an intense spell of foreign institutional selling amid fears that global tariffs proposed by US President Donald Trump would impact emerging markets like India.Asked how he had positioned himself in the current market, Kedia said, "I am sitting like an eagle, waiting and watching to make the right move."Following the downturn, Kedia has set his sights on the midcap and smallcap space, where he believes "value can be found" by those having an investment horizon of at least three years."Many mid- and small-cap stocks are illiquid, so on small volumes they fall a lot more (than large caps), but they also can rise a lot more on small volumes after a bottom has been made."The Nifty Midcap 150 has outperformed the benchmark having fallen 8% from a record high of 22,650.05 on 7 January through 20,839.35 on Wednesday.

Now that Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve Board, it is worth asking how different a Warsh Fed would be from the current one. President Donald Trump had made it clear that he wants a Fed chair who will push for lower policy rates to juice the US economy and support his broader agenda.

Springing a surprise, US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a plan for what he called America’s first new refinery in half-a-century, backed by investment from India’s Reliance. To be built by America First Refining, it is part of a deal whose value Trump put at $300 billion, calling it the biggest in US history.“Thank you to our partners in India, and their largest privately held Energy Company, Reliance, for this tremendous Investment,” he said in a Truth Social post.

Late last month, the US Department of War labelled Anthropic, creator of the artificial intelligence (AI) system Claude, “a supply chain risk,” and began taking steps to remove it from all use in the department, including by contractors and subcontractors to its roughly $1 trillion annual spending. There are news reports that no company that does work with the Pentagon will be allowed to engage in “commercial activity” with Anthropic. President Donald Trump called Anthropic a “radical left, woke company” that he “fired… like dogs.” OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT and leading system in the AI race, swooped in within a day.

Iran’s strategy in its war with the US and Israel is clear: Impose an intolerable economic cost on US President Donald Trump, forcing him to abandon his ‘war of choice’ as American petrol prices surge. Is there any way the Islamic Republic’s blueprint for survival can fail? Yes, if its old regional nemesis, Saudi Arabia, can step in to cushion the global oil market.Enter the East-West pipeline, a 1,200km conduit crisscrossing the Arabian Peninsula from the Gulf to the Red Sea. Its raison d’être is to meet this historic moment.

"Khamenei Out.” That was the title of an event wager on the prediction market Kalshi. On the website of its rival, Polymarket, wagers were being made on “the timing of the Iran war” just before it began. Posts by Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics tool, on X indicate that six accounts collectively pocketed $1.2 million in profit from Polymarket bets.