Battle of pipelines: Hormuz is clamped but other routes exist for Gulf oil to flow—if Iran lets it

Iran’s strategy in its war with the US and Israel is clear: Impose an intolerable economic cost on US President Donald Trump, forcing him to abandon his ‘war of choice’ as American petrol prices surge. Is there any way the Islamic Republic’s blueprint for survival can fail? Yes, if its old regional nemesis, Saudi Arabia, can step in to cushion the global oil market.Enter the East-West pipeline, a 1,200km conduit crisscrossing the Arabian Peninsula from the Gulf to the Red Sea. Its raison d’être is to meet this historic moment.

Riyadh built it 45 years ago thinking that one day Tehran would manage to do what was then unthinkable and halt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.The strait is a chokepoint for about 20 million barrels a day of crude and refined products—a fifth of global consumption. The Saudi pipeline can’t offset all of that, but it can provide a workaround for as much as 5 million daily barrels. Another pipeline, owned by the UAE, offers a separate bypass option to the Gulf of Oman for 1.5 million barrels.

In an emergency, the UAE can probably push it close to 2 million. Together, these pipelines can slow if not stop runaway petroleum prices if both countries can get enough tankers into the loading ports where the oil ends up. Recently, about 25 supertankers, each capable of loading about 2 million barrels, shifted course and were headed towards the new pickup points.

It remains to be seen how the ports will cope with these armadas.The loss of supply since the first strikes on Iran has been so brutal that oil prices jumped well above $100 a barrel, rising 20% in just a few seconds when markets opened on Sunday. But maybe the pipeline bypasses can delay further gains, buying time for Trump. The White House