Persistent FPI selling may push March outflows to record high
₹74,795.57 crore in the month through 17 March, according to National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data.That works out to an average daily sale of ₹6,799.59 crore over 11 sessions of the month. If the FPI selling for the remaining eight days continues with the same intensity, March would clock ₹1.29 trillion, higher than the record ₹1.14 trillion FPI outflows seen in October 2024.The average daily FPI outflow in October 2024 was ₹5,175 crore .The record selling that month was induced by rising US bond yields, over concerns of global tariff wars following a likely Republican victory in the US presidential elections.
Donald Trump went on to win the election, beating Democrat candidate Kamala Harris.The generic 10-year US bond rose to 4.28% that month, up 13% from September 2024 , resulting in outsized FPI outflows from India to the safety of the US dollar.March has been marked by the US-Iran conflict, which has effectively choked oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted production, fuelling a 38% surge in Brent crude to $100.21 a barrel as of 16 March.The crude rally has impacted oil-dependent economies like India, which imports almost 90% of its 5.5 million barrels of oil consumed daily.This has led to the rupee falling 1.53% to 92.38 per US dollar this month through 17 March, and sparked fears among FPIs that higher crude prices could erode corporate earnings and depress share prices."The FPI selling is totally outsized, in our view," said Nitin Jain, chief executive officer & director, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Singapore.Jain said that if one considers a one-year forward ₹1,400 earnings per share for Nifty, the valuation currently stands at 16.84 times FY28 earnings. The 10-year historic valuation
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