Shock Financial News

After nine days of denial, the hard reality of an oil shock seems to have hit home. In the second week of joint US-Israel attacks on Iran, crude oil prices have leapt into three digits, with Brent within sniffing distance of $120 per barrel at one point. The oil spike battered stocks across Asia as plumes of smoke began to look like clouds of stagflation on the not-so-distant horizon.

Russian oil imports have received a free pass for a month, markets are spooked. And reasonably so.Higher crude means higher landed inflation, a wider current account deficit, and pressure on the rupee – all headwinds for corporate earnings, which had only just started staging a recovery. And markets have reacted accordingly – Nifty 50 index dropped almost 3% last week, matching the declines seen in the midcap and smallcap spaces.However, markets are never one-dimensional.

Mint, citing low prices, adequate strategic reserves, and the government’s ability to cushion fuel shocks from spilling into retail prices.In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation, under a revised data series, stood at around 2.75%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4%.With inflation currently subdued and a newly introduced CPI series indicating broadly similar trends to the old base-year data, the economists said the starting point itself provides a strong buffer against external shocks, likely preventing any immediate pressure on retail inflation or RBI's monetary policy outlook.For 2025-26, the RBI has projected CPI inflation at 2.1%, with the March quarter at 3.2%. Inflation for the June and September quarters is seen at 4% and 4.2%, respectively, suggesting the current price environment is far more benign than during previous geopolitical shocks.“I think the starting point is more comfortable for RBI at this juncture, given that inflation is more manageable now compared with the Russia-Ukraine war, when global commodity prices surged sharply,” Anubhuti Sahay, head of India economic research at Standard Chartered Bank, said.Sahay added that policymakers are unlikely to rush to revise projections or change the policy stance until there is greater clarity on how long the war will last and how significantly it will disrupt global energy markets.

The Iran-US conflict has sent shockwaves through Indian markets, pushing the rupee to a record low of 92.32 and driving crude oil past $80 per barrel. As the Nifty 50 shed 2.1% in just four days, foreign investors pulled out over ₹11,700 crore, seeking safety in a strengthening dollar.With the Strait of Hormuz blockade threatening energy supplies and squeezing margins for oil and chemical firms, investors are caught between gold's safe-haven appeal and rising macroeconomic headwinds.Mintexplains what this nascent war and the resulting supply shocks mean for your portfolio and the road ahead for Indian equities.Since the Iran-US war began on 28 February, equity markets worldwide have fallen.The Nifty 50 index declined 2.1% between 28 February and 4 March, while the Nikkei fell 5.5%, the Hang Seng 4.5%, and the Kospi 8.9% over the same period.

₹3,296 crore. Tuesday was a market holiday.On Wednesday, provisional BSE data showed that FIIs were net sellers of Indian equities worth Rs8,753 crore, while DIIs stepped in as net buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs12,068 crore.

Domestic equities tumbled under relentless selling pressure on Monday as the US-Israel and Iran conflict stoked fears of elevated crude oil prices and clouded India Inc’s earnings outlook for the coming quarters.India’s benchmark Nifty 50 fell 1.2% to 24,865.7, tracking weakness across Asian markets, though it fared marginally better than most emerging peers. Thailand led the declines, plunging nearly 4%, followed by Indonesia and Hong Kong, where benchmark indices slipped 2-3%.

India’s economy is growing fast. The speedometer looks impressive. The engine, however, is increasingly running on debt.

₹22,615 crore in Indian equities after selling for three months in a row, showed NSDL data. Strengthening of the Indian rupee (improves returns in dollar terms) and reducing trade uncertainties with India-European Union deal and other trade agreements were the likely catalysts.But geopolitics could interrupt that revival.The latest new series gross domestic product (GDP) data for the December quarter (Q3FY26), using 2022-23 as the base year, showed growth at 7.8% despite tariff troubles.

Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The trade deal being negotiated with the US is set to benefit India’s agriculture exports, the same way trade liberalization in the last 25 years has helped Indian farm exports grow faster than global agricultural trade, Ramesh Chand, member, Niti Aayog has said in an interview. Chand told Mint that the India-US deal is set to help meet rising domestic demand for items like edible oils and nuts that cannot be met entirely locally, while also opening up market for India’s surplus farm produce including rice.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The end of history’ is a fool’s title. It invites mockery the way a tall poppy invites a scythe.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. State Bank of India’s (SBI) December quarter (Q3FY26) results landed strongly on Saturday against a slightly jittery backdrop. Bond yields had crept up after the Union Budget, reviving the familiar fear trade around banks—higher yields, tighter liquidity, and pressure on margins.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The ownership of India’s listed firms is undergoing a fundamental shift. For the first time since the start of the pandemic, aggregate promoter holdings have slipped below the key 50% threshold.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Few questions are as revealing today as how the world’s two largest economies—the US and China—differ in their economic approaches. In Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future (2025), Dan Wang offers a useful lens.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The government’s goal of a Viksit Bharat by 2047 requires India to sustain high growth over a long period of time. Union Budget 2026-27 operates within a framework that India has articulated for itself: of bringing down the government’s debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio on a sustainable basis.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The stakes couldn’t be higher for Union Budget 2026-27. Global shocks and domestic frailties demanded a stroke of fiscal artistry—prudence on the fiscal path fused with audacious growth bets and prioritization of the medium term over the short term.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The Union Budget 2026-27 marks a fundamental shift in India’s fiscal framework. Starting next fiscal, the government has adopted the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio as its main fiscal anchor, marking a strategic departure from the traditional focus on fiscal deficit.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. India has shown strong resilience and absorptive capacity in the face of repeated global shocks, noted the Economic Survey 2025-26, presented in Parliament on Thursday.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Climate change has moved gradually onto India’s economic agenda. Economic Surveys now devote full chapters to climate risk, budget speeches frame growth as green and India has formally estimated its climate finance needs at about $2.5 trillion by 2030.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The good news for China is its export machine is still very much a going concern. It might even be described as thriving, despite US tariffs.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. 2026 could be another big year for initial public offerings (IPOs) with more than 100 companies already receiving approval to raise about ₹1.4 trillion (around $15.5 billion), according to Prime Database. Millions of retail investors typically flock to IPOs in the hope of earning quick profits by ‘flipping’ these shares after listing, but seasoned participants urge restraint, often shaped by hard-earned experience.