Shock Financial News

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest projections for the global economy are broadly along expected lines, but its view on India springs a surprise. The multilateral lender now sees India’s growth exceeding what it had forecast before the outbreak of war in West Asia. At 6.5%, India’s projected GDP growth for 2026-27 is 0.1 percentage point higher than published in the January World Economic Outlook of the IMF and 0.3 percentage point higher than its October view.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.NEW DELHI: The government sees limited impact of the West Asia war on India’s FY26 growth, but a prolonged disruption could force some pass-through of elevated global oil prices into retail fuel, according to two officials aware of an internal assessment.The conflict, which began on 28 February, has heightened concerns around energy supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for global oil trade. While the government has so far absorbed the shock through tax cuts and limited price increases, that cushion may narrow if high crude prices persist.In FY26, India’s economy is projected to have grown 7.6%, according to the second advance estimates released in February.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.India’s nearly 80 million micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)—employing over 328.2 million people and contributing 31.1% to gross domestic product (GDP), 35.4% to manufacturing output, and 48.58% to exports—have been navigating a harsh global environment over the past five years. From the covid-19 pandemic-induced economic standstill to cost shocks triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, recurring volatility in West Asia, and trade disruptions under the Trump administration, the sector has faced repeated stress.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.A bunch of listed realty developers announced March quarter (Q4FY26) operational updates last week. The highlight: record FY26 pre-sales or bookings.Godrej Properties' pre-sales rose 15% year-on-year to ₹34,171 crore, 5% ahead of its guidance.

Throughout this decade, India’s household savings have steadily left the safety of bank deposits to chase returns in equities. This was supposed to provide a stable pool of risk capital to entrepreneurs and act as a shock absorber against fickle hot-money inflows from overseas. The Iran war punched holes in this cheery thesis that a ceasefire may not mend.For the first time since the pandemic, individual investors were net sellers in the secondary market in the first 11 months of 2025-26.

Over the past three days, 6-8 April 2026, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that is responsible for setting the policy interest rate (repo) has, doubtless, burnt the proverbial midnight oil deliberating on the growth-inflation trade-off. As expected, it has concluded, like most central banks, that it is best to mark time.The ceasefire in the West Asia conflict, announced just a little over an hour before US President Donald Trump’s deadline to “wipe out an entire civilisation” was to end (and, coincidently, just hours before RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra’s statement), brings only a temporary reprieve (of a fortnight).It is far from clear whether the ceasefire will hold.

For at least a decade, developing countries across Asia and Africa have worried about growing dependent on the People’s Republic of China. They’re concerned about debt traps, coercive policies and hidden costs that might push their economies toward crisis.Crisis has come, and that logic has been turned on its head. After six weeks of the US and Israel’s war on Iran and its ensuing counter-attacks, it is the countries that bet on Chinese supply chains that are faring better than the ones that had trusted Pax Americana.

The ongoing war in West Asia has cast a pall of uncertainty over the global economy. The disruptions in energy supplies have begun to ripple through supply chains across the world. In its latest monthly review of the Indian economy, the finance ministry has noted: “Recent shocks are being transmitted through higher input costs, supply constraints and pressures across sectors, with early indications of some moderation in economic activity.”For economic policymakers, managing a disruption in supply is far more complicated than responding to a sudden shift in demand.

West Asia crisis with resilient activity indicators and still-supportive demand. Further, the inflation environment too has remained benign.

The world has been through this before. Oil prices spike, supply chains shudder and emerging economies absorb the pain while advanced nations reach for their strategic reserves. But the conflict now roiling West Asia carries a twist that policymakers must not overlook: this is not a health shock, as covid was.

The US-Israel attack on Iran has profound implications for the long-term stability of the West Asian region, global geopolitics, energy security and global economics. The expanding nature of the conflict is spawning a long list of collateral damages, amplifying vulnerabilities wherever they exist.

oil price spike has worsened the external flow position further by widening the current account deficit and triggering large FPI capital outflows.While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced measures to curb speculation in the onshore forex market, the rupee's depreciation is likely to persist and add to inflationary pressures.At present, the headline inflation remains below the target rate and with the excise duty cuts, the central government has ensured that the near-term impact of the adverse shock on inflation and growth is contained.It is thus likely that the MPC will leave the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, awaiting clarity on the duration of the oil market disruption, while acknowledging that higher oil prices have significantly increased the risk of inflation rising above 4% over the year.The policy stance is likely to be retained as neutral, providing the MPC with the flexibility to act appropriately depending on the evolving macro-economic conditions.The longer oil prices stay above $100 per barrel level, the greater will be the upward pressure on imported and overall inflation and downward pressure on real GDP growth. Thus, over the course of this fiscal year, the MPC will closely monitor disruptions to energy markets due to the West Asia conflict.

Airlines got a fuel price scare after state-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) more than doubled its aviation turbine fuel (ATF) price, only to roll back most of the hike within hours on Wednesday. Its initially notified price for jet fuel was ₹207,341 a kilolitre for April in New Delhi, up 115% from March, marking its highest level ever. This was swiftly revised to ₹104,927 for domestic airlines, a mere 8.5% increase.

₹200,000 per kilolitre, more than double the previous price of ₹96,638.14. The Union petroleum ministry stepped in quickly, capping the increase for domestic flights.Following the change, Indian Oil's jet fuel now costs ₹104,927 per kilolitre in Delhi, an 8.5% rise over March, while airlines would have to pay the new rate for international flights.

The financial and economic implications of the US-Israeli war with Iran will depend on the war’s duration. The longer it goes on, the longer we can expect oil, gas, fertilizer, helium and other prices to remain elevated.

sulphur demand of about 4 million tonnes. More than three-quarters of this comes from West Asian countries such as the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman, according to latest available World Bank Data for 2023.sulphur is widely used to produce sulphuric acid for fertilizers, and is also a key input in chemicals, textiles manufacturing, and electric vehicle batteries.The state-run engineering company received orders worth ₹76,930 crore from thermal power plants in FY25, its latest annual report said.

Banks in India got a jolt late on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) capped their net open positions in the forex market at $100 million. Many have been sitting on large long-dollar positions, which they’ll now be forced to unwind by RBI’s deadline at a loss. Bank stocks, of course, slid on Monday.RBI’s apparent aim is to increase dollar supplies in support of the rupee.

India’s retail brokers are bracing for a sharp erosion in active clients and revenue as the escalating West Asia war threatens to further dampen market sentiment and trading activity.The active retail client base of brokerages has already shrunk over the past year due to muted, rangebound markets and the impact of regulatory curbs on derivatives trading. The outflow of active clients is set to intensify from March as the US-Iran war increases the risk of more retail investors stepping away from the stock market.“Broker revenues are down 20-30% across the industry year on year.

India’s energy story is inseparable from its growth trajectory. As one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies, its energy demand is rising rapidly. India is now the world’s third-largest energy consumer, and peak electricity demand is projected to reach 345–365 gigawatts (GW) by 2030.

Investors have grown accustomed to the idea that US President Donald Trump-induced shocks rarely last long, because, as the popular TACO acronym tells us, ‘Trump Always Chickens Out.’ But the American president’s decision to join Israel in starting a war with Iran has opened a geopolitical and macroeconomic Pandora’s box that may make a tidy walk-back impossible. Under the surface, financial markets are starting to take note.The ‘TACO regime’ in American stocks—under which every selloff was a buying opportunity—may be over. That thesis will now get a test after Trump postponed threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants for five days, pending the outcome of what he said were talks with Iran to end the war.

In every crisis lies an opportunity, it is said. At the very least, today’s hydrocarbon crisis should re-open India’s forlorn debate on pushing oil and gas into a closer market embrace as a sector. Ever since we ran into supply snarls that began with yet another war in West Asia, shock-absorbers have been in focus, along with our import dependence.To be sure, this is no ordinary shock.