West Asia war: India FY26 growth to see limited hit, but oil price pass-through looms
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.NEW DELHI: The government sees limited impact of the West Asia war on India’s FY26 growth, but a prolonged disruption could force some pass-through of elevated global oil prices into retail fuel, according to two officials aware of an internal assessment.The conflict, which began on 28 February, has heightened concerns around energy supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for global oil trade. While the government has so far absorbed the shock through tax cuts and limited price increases, that cushion may narrow if high crude prices persist.In FY26, India’s economy is projected to have grown 7.6%, according to the second advance estimates released in February.
The fourth-quarter GDP data and provisional full-year figures will be released on 28 May.The government is assessing damage to global energy infrastructure. The situation so far has the potential to reduce India’s FY27 growth by 0.3-4 percentage points, said one of the two officials, adding that it is hard to predict the full-year impact based on just 45 days of disruption.“Constant vigil, agility in decision making and preventing panic are central to government’s approach in handling the situation,” said the second official.
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