
China stays on top, India slips 3 spots: How the West Asia war changed EM ranks
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.China emerged largely unscathed at a time when the West Asia war battered nearly every major emerging market economy through higher energy prices and their ripple effects. The dragon retained its top rank on Mint’s Emerging Markets Tracker (EMT) for March 2026.India, by contrast, slipped three places to sixth as the conflict intensified rupee depreciation, foreign outflows and export weakness.The divergence underscores a widening gap in external-sector stability.
China delivered the strongest currency and stock market performance among emerging markets, lifting its overall score on seven high-frequency indicators to 71 (out of 100). India scored 61, with its export performance turning the second-worst after Russia.
Weak currency and stock market readings further dragged down its ranking.India’s vulnerability was visible even before the March shock. After holding the top rank in the first half of 2025, India’s standing started to fluctuate from August 2025 even as gross domestic product (GDP) growth and manufacturing PMI stood the strongest among the EMs.
The weakness was entirely external, with export performance remaining volatile.
Launched in September 2019, Mint’s Emerging Markets Tracker compares 12 emerging market economies using seven high-frequency indicators: real GDP growth, manufacturing PMI, export growth, retail inflation, import cover, exchange rate movements, and stock market performance.March intensified these pressures.As Brent crude crossed $100 per barrel, the impact fed directly into external balances. For an economy that imports 85% of its oil, the shock was immediate.