



How the Iran war threatens India’s nascent credit recovery
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.In a world beset by uncertainty, a 14% plus year-on-year growth in bank credit during December 2025 to February 2026 is reason for cheer. To be sure, part of this reflects a normalization of the credit cycle which saw brief disruption in mid-2025 triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.
But the more important shift is that the drivers of this credit expansion are not the same as in the 2022-24 phase.About 12% of incremental bank credit is being driven by lending to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), double the sector’s 6-7% contribution in 2023. This surge is likely the outcome of a series of measures aimed at widening MSME access to credit.A significant hike in MSME investment and turnover thresholds in 2025 allowed a larger set of firms to qualify for sectoral benefits.
At the same time, the increase in the credit guarantee ceiling, from ₹5 crore to ₹10 crore, enabled larger loans to come under guarantee coverage. Concurrently, reduced guarantee fees lowered borrowing costs.
In 2026, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) added another layer of support by allowing banks to extend collateral-free loans of up to ₹20 lakh to MSMEs.Lending to non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) accounted for 11-13% of incremental bank credit growth in January and February 2026, the highest in 33 months. The improvement reflects a combination of lower interest rates, reduced risk weights for low-risk NBFCs, and the finalization of a co-lending framework between banks and NBFCs.
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