Donald Trump’s options to cool oil prices are sorely limited
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.ON MARCH 11TH the 32 members of the International Energy Agency (IEA), a club of large oil-consuming countries, agreed to sell 400m barrels of crude from their emergency reserves. The release, equivalent to one-third of the group’s combined strategic stash, is the biggest ever co-ordinated by the IEA, which was founded in 1974 after the first Arab oil embargo. Its historical significance failed to impress oil markets, which have been shaken by the Middle Eastern crisis provoked by America and Israel’s war on Iran.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose by nearly 10% in the day after the IEA’s announcement, back to $100 or so a barrel (see chart 1).Traders doubt that Donald Trump can end the war “any time” he wants, as he has claimed. Iran has attacked several tankers and is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. On March 11th Israel’s defence minister said the operation would continue “for as long as it takes”.
The boss of Saudi Aramco, the world’s oil colossus, has warned of “catastrophic consequences” if the war drags on.The closure of Hormuz is the biggest shock to global supply in the history of oil. Last year some 15m barrels per day (b/d) of crude, equivalent to 15% of world output, plus another 4m b/d of refined oil products sailed the waterway. A fraction can be redirected via pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), but that still leaves around 15m b/d of oil and products trapped in the Persian Gulf (see chart 2).
Mr Trump says he has “a plan” to keep energy prices contained. What options are available to him and other world leaders?The immediate fix would be for more tankers to transit the strait. Early on the lack of war-risk coverage looked like a big
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