’10 Surprises’ strategist Byron Wien dies aged 90
investmentnews.comByron Wien, the longtime market strategist whose annual list of “10 Surprises” made him one of the most influential voices on Wall Street during a career at Blackstone Inc. and Morgan Stanley, has died. He was 90.
He died Wednesday. Wien was at Blackstone for the past 14 years and was most recently a vice chairman in the private wealth business, serving as a prognosticator of markets for the firm and its investors.
“Byron’s life was remarkable in so many ways,” Blackstone Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman and President Jon Gray said in a memo circulated at the firm. “He was always building new relationships and pushed everyone around him to think about the risks and opportunities that lay ahead.”
Orphaned as a teenager, the Chicago-born Wien overcame a hard-luck youth to become a household name in finance with a career spanning more than 50 years. He began publishing his predictions in 1986, when he was chief US investment strategist at Morgan Stanley. The list quickly became a must-read, focusing as it did on seemingly low-probability outcomes on topics such as the direction of the S&P 500 Index, China’s economic growth and the next US president.
His formula was simple but provocative: Look at things an average investor would give a 1-in-3 chance of happening but that (to Wien) had a better-than-50% likelihood of occurring. While oftentimes off-the-mark, his forecasts nonetheless were widely followed year in and year out and had the force to move financial markets.
“The great thing about Byron’s picks — and I’ve followed Byron for 30 years … is when he’s wrong, it really doesn’t cost you anything,” stock picker Jim Cramer said on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street when Wien announced his surprises for 2018. “When he’s
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