3 Takeaways From the OPEC Seminar Every Oil Trader Should Pay Attention to

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OPEC just held its semi-regular seminar in Vienna. This gathering is not a regular OPEC or OPEC+ meeting, where ministers assess the market and set production quotas. Rather, it is an informational meeting where OPEC ministers, delegates, and top analysts in the oil market discuss trends and new developments.

However, important messaging from key OPEC players can yield information about their thinking on future production and can move the market.

Here are some of the important notes for traders from the conference so far:

Saudi Arabia decided to extend its voluntary 1 million bpd production cut through the end of August. Russia plans to cut oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August. Algeria also committed to cutting 20,000 bpd in August.

Russia’s plans always need to be taken with a grain of salt, as Russia often doesn’t follow through with the production changes it announces. However, the export cuts could be because Russia needs more oil domestically and is planning to funnel this crude oil to its own refineries.

But, now that Saudi Arabia has extended its voluntary cuts another month, traders should look for pressure to mount for Saudi Arabia to extend through the end of 2023, especially if global economic sentiment doesn’t pick up.

In an interview at the OPEC Seminar, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser seemed cautiously optimistic about demand, saying that recessionary fears are everywhere and Chinese economic growth is still picking up.

He was especially optimistic about jet fuel demand growth and noted that jet fuel demand is still below pre-COVID numbers, so there is room to grow there. He did not offer any timeframe for improvement in China’s economy, which could mean that he thinks Chinese