A yearlong slowdown in US inflation may have stalled in July

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

United States likely rose in July for the first time in 12 months, driven higher by more expensive gasoline and suggesting that the fight against rising prices may prove bumpier in the months ahead. The inflation report the government will issue Thursday is expected to show that consumer prices increased 3.3% from 12 months earlier. That would mark an uptick from a 3% year-over-year increase in June — the lowest such figure in more than two years.

On a month-to-month basis, consumer prices are thought to have risen 0.2% from June to July, the same as in the previous month, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. A jump in energy prices was likely a major contributor to higher inflation in July. Gasoline prices have surged nearly 30 cents over the past month to a national average of $3.83 a gallon, according to AAA.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core prices are expected to show a 4.8% rise in July over the previous year and 0.2% from a month earlier, unchanged from the previous month's increases. Thursday's inflation data will be among the key metrics the Federal Reserve will consider in deciding whether to continue raising interest rates. In its drive to tame inflation, the Fed has raised its benchmark rate 11 times since March 2022 to a 22-year high.

Those rate hikes are believed to have helped significantly slow price increases: After peaking at a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022, year-over-year inflation has dropped month after month. Yet inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. And economists say the easy progress has likely already been achieved.