After Q3 positives, Street’s lofty earnings growth forecasts face reality checks
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. India Inc.’s December quarter (Q3FY26) earnings surprised positively on some counts. For instance, on an aggregate basis, the Nifty 500 index companies delivered strong double-digit profit-after-tax growth of 19% in Q3 (adjusted for extraordinary items), the highest in eight quarters, showed an analysis by Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
The top 10 incremental profit contributors, primarily from the oil & gas, metals, financial, and telecom sectors, together contributed around 50% of the incremental year-on-year earnings growth. Aggregate sales for the Nifty 500 universe grew 11%, the highest in 11 quarters, mainly led by the benefits of goods and services tax (GST) cuts flowing through select sectors. That coupled with recent monetary and fiscal measures by the Reserve Bank of India and the government have also lent some support to the overall macroeconomic environment.
While the pace of earnings cuts has moderated, an improvement in one quarter isn’t enough to rekindle earnings upgrades, given the lingering headwinds. “The FY27 consensus earnings-per-share estimates for the Nifty 50 were trimmed by 1% after the Q3FY26 results. However, consensus is building on a steep earnings acceleration for FY27E—19% growth (versus 9-10% in FY25/26)," said Prateek Parekh, executive director, institutional equities, Nuvama Wealth Management.
The consensus expectations of a revival still run high, posing downside risks, he cautioned, adding that artificial intelligence-related disruption poses risks to wages and thus, to that extent, on overall consumption itself. Weak earnings growth prospects amid expensive valuations could prevent large upsides in key Indian benchmark indices. India lagged in
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