AI’s impact will parallel that of the internet, not steam engine

livemint.com:

Technologists have been doing it. Jamie Dimon just did it in his latest letter to shareholders. I’m referring to the way people are comparing the transformational impact of artificial intelligence (AI) to that of the steam engine.

The metaphor has not only become a cliché; it paints an oversimplified picture of how this technology will reshape our lives. To be fair to Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, his examples were drawn from a wider net: “Think the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, computing and the Internet, among others," he wrote. But the effects of perfecting steam power pale in comparison with the changes that the next technological development will bring.

The comparison is common. Microsoft chief technology officer Kevin Scott has said that it was the closest metaphor “to help understand what AI means for humanity." Yes, harnessing steam pressure to run machinery and trains was pivotal to the Industrial Revolution, and yes, we are arguably in the midst of a metamorphosis with AI driving profound change. For a start, AI’s impact will be far broader than that of the steam engine, transformed physical labour, manufacturing and transport.

Today, AI models can generate ideas and art. Ad agencies are using them to brainstorm ideas and generate scripts and storyboards. This is an altogether different impact on decision-making and creativity, even personal identity and the way people socialize.

Note the rise of AI chatbots like Character.ai, Replika and Kindroid, used for therapy, companionship and romance. AI has also been adopted far more quickly than the steam engine. Thomas Newcomen’s first commercially successful engine in the early 1700s wasn’t improved on by James Watt until more than 60 years later;