
AI stocks are a bet on the future. Markets are ignoring the now.
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The case for the artificial-intelligence trade is the technology is so revolutionary that eventually it will be well worth the trillions that have been invested to develop it. But that argument means many investors don’t bother to distinguish between AI-related companies with solid fundamentals and those on shakier ground.
In reality, the shares of most AI winners have traded on hopes for the far-flung future during this bull market, rather than the here, now, or near future, notes Trivariate Research President Adam Parker. That’s based on his work dating back to early 2023. As Parker details in a note Friday, his firm created three baskets of AI plays back then—10 semiconductor stocks, 19 software, and 20 “other" companies, which included a mix of names like Amazon.com, Dell Technologies, and Snowflake.
Those baskets were then further divided into companies with high, low, and negative free cash flow. After tracking these stocks, Parker found that the market doesn’t care about free cash flow. The stocks in the “other" group have a median FCF yield—free cash flow as a percentage of firm’s market value—of 4.3%, well above the rest of the market.
Meanwhile, semiconductor companies now have significantly less FCF than those in other categories, yielding a paltry 1.7%. And yet semiconductor stocks have outperformed, as the clear winning group since the White House shook markets with its widespread tariffs announcement back in April. In other words, AI believers aren’t paying attention to free cash flow yield, a valuable metric to gauge a company’s current performance.
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