AI was proof of American exceptionalism. Now it’s undermining it.
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest," said Benjamin Franklin. But he didn’t have to contend with artificial intelligence.
There are many aspects of the recent selloff that are concerning, with anything tangentially threatened by AI getting hit hard. Perhaps the most worrisome, however, is the fact that virtually no knowledge-based company appears to be safe. Software stocks are just the tip of the iceberg, with panic spreading to everything from legal providers to business information, real estate investment trusts, and logistics companies.
“This matters since the main comparative advantage of the U.S. economy and U.S. equity markets has been as a genuine leader in the ‘knowledge revolution,’" writes Gavekal Research Founding Partner and Chief Executive Officer Louis Gave.
“So, if the market is suddenly no longer rewarding the large number of knowledge companies in the same way it used to, this is really bad news for the U.S. equity market, whose valuation is rather stretched by any (non-knowledge-adjusted) measures." Part of the American exceptionalism bull thesis that has prevailed in recent years rests on the idea that while other countries may be able to replicate breakthroughs in AI more cheaply, the U.S. remains at the forefront of the knowledge economy, making it unmatched in the intellectual arms race.
If knowledge suddenly isn’t worth paying for, then it’s hard to justify paying a premium for U.S. stocks. Even after the recent selloff, the S&P 500 is trading at more than 21 times forward earnings—certainly high by historical standards.
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