AIs could turn opinion polls into gibberish
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. POLLSTERS HAVE been burning through their nine lives. First, as caller ID spread, people stopped answering their phone calls.
Response rates tumbled to single-digit percentages. Then political polarisation and distrust made some Americans less likely to answer surveys. That contributed to a series of embarrassing polling misses in elections where Donald Trump was on the ballot.
The internet and smartphones offered some relief, because they allowed polling firms to reach millions of people quickly and cheaply. Now pollsters face yet another test: large language models can answer surveys as a human would, often undetected. The first wave of AI survey-takers may not distort much in the beginning.
But a more insidious feedback loop will emerge, if it has not already. As AI-generated responses make up a growing share of survey data, the resemblance to actual public opinion will fade. And the damage will not be confined to political polling.
It will creep into all manner of online surveys, relied on by university researchers, companies and governmental agencies. To assess the extent to which AI will unsettle survey research, Sean Westwood, a political scientist at Dartmouth College, built an AI agent to take surveys. Mr Westwood created 6,000 demographic profiles, each of them so detailed that, for example, one took the form of a 39-year-old white woman from Bakersfield, California who is unemployed, married with children, sporadically interested in the news and a born-again Christian who prays several times a day.
The model then answers survey questions as that person. To fend off bots and inattentive respondents, pollsters have long relied on “gotcha" questions. They might ask whether
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