All the world's a stage and we got to play unexpected parts in 2023

livemint.com:

₹2,000 notes rang bells of demonetization some 7 years ago, as people rushed to change or deposit the same. Was it a measure to remove black money just before election time? Or was it a routine part of a ‘clean notes’ policy? Almost all the notes came back into the system and one could say all’s well that ends well. A nagging question is that if the policy of clean notes is pursued, will the ₹500 note see similar action next year? Shakespeare would say, ‘Give every man thy ear, but few thy voice.’ Ninth, just as news broke that India had lost the World Cup cricket final, a social media post went around claiming that India’s GDP had crossed the $4 trillion mark.

And this was not on 1 April. There was jubilation among those who go by social media for news, until it was realized that it was incorrect, as GDP figures come in with a lag and this data is not like a stock-market ticker that changes by the second. To those who did not understand these nuances, it looked as if a $5 trillion economy was not far off and it was reasonable to talk of $7 trillion.

As the bard said, thought is free. Last, the ‘fastest growing economy’ epithet spread far and wide as second-quarter GDP growth for 2023-24 came in at 7.6%, which was ‘beyond expectations.’ The applause was palpable while the hands kept clapping. Manufacturing had revived, with growth of 13.9%.

But wait, wasn’t there a fall in the sales of this sector? Sure, it did fall. But GDP is about value added and that includes profits, which rose sharply. So we can have GDP growing with sales falling! That’s how the numbers stack up.

As the playwright Shaw said, ‘You never can tell’. A very happy new year to all as everyone awaits the next round of forecasts. These are the author’s