Analysis-German M&A outlook clouded by growing economic challenges
By Emma-Victoria Farr
FRANKFURT (Reuters) — A backlog of incomplete deals and an uncertain economic outlook mean German dealmakers are predicting a quiet first quarter and a relative fee famine until 2025 in Europe's biggest economy.
Financial and legal advisers point to a darker macroeconomic outlook for Germany, which saw four deals totalling $113 million in the first 10 days of 2024, compared with 45 deals worth $876 million in the same period last year, Dealogic data shows.
Europe too has made a slower start, with 71 deals totalling $2.2 billion, down from 375 worth almost $9 billion in the same period of 2023.
«The economic challenges facing Germany are likely to lead to a quieter Q1,» said Bernd Egbers, partner at Astera Legal, adding that private equity funds and companies are likely to be more cautious about making big acquisitions.
In signs of the mounting challenges for Germany, farmers this week staged nationwide protests, coupled with disruptive rail strikes across the country, and corporate insolvencies increasing significantly at the end of 2023.
Late last year, the German government froze major spending pledges focused on green initiatives and industry after a constitutional court ruling on unused pandemic emergency funds blew a 60 billion euro ($65 billion) hole in its finances.
This hit investor confidence, with business morale worsening in December, according to the Ifo institute. German industrial production also fell unexpectedly in November, the sixth monthly decline in a row.
«Entering 2024 with such low M&A volumes, we do not anticipate so much more activity in the coming year, with a pick-up to take greater effect in 2025,» said Rainer Langel, Head of Europe, Middle East and Africa, at Macquarie
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