Analysts now expect IndiGo's financials to be hit worse than they thought
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. A ten-day turmoil and a compulsory flight reduction will slam the financials of IndiGo, three equity analysts said, even as the regulator stepped up scrutiny of India's largest airline. IndiGo, they said, may witness a 10% decline in full-year revenue and a 17-30% lower profitability in FY26, as it makes a halting recovery from its biggest disruption.
The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) on Wednesday formed an eight-member team to monitor IndiGo's daily operations, including two officials who will be stationed at the airline's Gurugram headquarters. The team will submit daily reports to the aviation regulator on IndiGo's fleet, average stage length, number of pilots, network details and crew utilization, among other details. Despite a 10% cut in IndiGo's daily flights ordered on Tuesday, the airline may find it challenging to keep costs under control, given that it still needs to hire more pilots, a spot of bother for investors.
Shares of InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, which operates IndiGo, plunged 17% between 1 and 10 December, a period when the BSE Sensex declined 1.5%. “There’s a flat 10% topline impact that we foresee now. The airline will continue to bear maintenance costs, lease payments and fuel costs.
These will go up. So, the hit on Ebitda is around 30-35% for the full year," said Gagan Dixit, vice-president, oil & gas and aviation at Elara Capital. In FY25, the airline recorded a revenue of ₹80,803 crore.
IndiGo does not give a full-year guidance beyond stating that the company was expecting capacity growth in the “mid teens". An email sent to IndiGo on whether the airline would revise its revenue or profitability guidance went unanswered. Analysts at Kotak
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