APL Apollo misses volume mark. Should investors worry?

steel tubes market, supported by an expansive distribution network.That scale advantage is difficult for competitors to replicate, and remains the backbone of APL’s pricing power and market-share resilience. Thanks to this pricing power, Nuvama Institutional Equities expects Ebitda per tonne to remain healthy at over ₹5,500.Importantly, this is no longer just a volume-led story.

Over the past decade, the company has steadily shifted towards higher-margin structural applications and expanded its SKU portfolio to over 5,000 products, deepening its presence across housing, construction, infrastructure and renewable energy.Moreover, capacity expansions provides a clear multi-year growth runway. Installed capacity is expected to increase from 5 million tonnes at the end of Q3FY26 to 8 million tonnes by FY28, with greenfield additions across eastern and western India and debottlenecking at existing plants.HDFC Securities expects it to deliver revenue and Ebitda CAGRs of 13% and 24%, respectively, over FY25–28, driven by about 13% volume CAGR, broadly stable Ebitda/tonne of about ₹5,000, and a VAP mix improving to roughly 70% by FY28.Meanwhile, export optionality is gradually improving.

The Bhuj coastal facility, combined with overseas warehouses in Europe and the United Arab Emirates manufacturing presence, is aimed at lifting exports from about 3% of revenue currently to 10% by FY28.That said, the West Asia war remains a variable that investors cannot ignore. Add to that, the usual uncertainties around input costs and fuel availability, and quarterly throughput could continue to see some volatility.