Why realty stocks’ investors are not feeling at home
West Asia war could push inflation higher, keeping prospective homebuyers on the sidelines. Affordability was already under strain after sustained price hikes, driven by rising construction costs even as demand held up.Early signs of a slowdown are emerging.
Housing sales in the top seven cities fell 7% sequentially in the March quarter of calendar year (CY26), according to Anarock Property Consultants. The decline coincides with many West Asian buyers, traditionally significant investors in Indian real estate, pausing purchases amid geopolitical uncertainty, the consultancy said.Investment activity has also weakened: institutional inflows into residential assets fell 53% sequentially and 59% year-on-year to $0.2 billion in Q1CY26, according to property consultant Vestian.For now, listed developers are expected to sail through the March quarter (Q4FY26) with decent pre-sales, aided by new launches.
But FY27 pre-sales or bookings trajectory could come under pressure if the war continues for longer. A high base effect could make attaining strong incremental pre-sales growth challenging.Jefferies India has estimated a 10-15% pre-sales growth in Q4FY26 for realty companies under its coverage, thus taking FY26 pre-sales growth to above 20%.
Channel checks by Jefferies suggest only a limited impact on residential sales from the Iran conflict so far.However, if the conflict is not fully resolved in the next two-four weeks, it may drive a potentially conservative pre-sales growth guidance across board. “We believe median growth guidance of 10-15% in FY27E, with Lodha Developers likely at the upper end,” said the Jefferies report on 24 March.On the supply-side, the pace of new launches has improved with approval-related
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