As El Niño flips over, Skymet forecasts normal monsoon this year
Bank of Baroda. “That will affect the agri prospects and rural demand. As of now, it is a positive signal which was expected as the world over La Nina was to prevail." According to the latest data from the Central Water Commission, the available water level this week in these reservoirs was 61.801 billion cubic metres (BCM), 17% lower than the corresponding period last year when it was 74.47 BCM and 2% lower than the average of last 10 years (63.095 BCM).
The live storage available in 150 reservoirs as of Thursday was 83% of the live storage of the corresponding period of the previous year and 98% of storage of average of the past 10 years. “Despite an increase in irrigation intensity, Indian agriculture has a high dependence on rainfall. This is evident from agriculture GVA (gross value added) growth in the December quarter of 2023-24," Devendra Pant, chief economist at India Ratings, estimated.
"On the assumption of normal rainfall and its spread over space and time across the country during June-September (southwest monsoon), Indian agricultural GVA is expected to grow around 3% in 2024-25," Pant added. GVA growth of agriculture and allied sectors contracted 0.8% in the October-December quarter from 1.6% growth seen in the previous quarter. This is the first time in 19 quarters that farm GVA saw a decline.
The growth rate was 5.2% in the year-ago period. In FY23, agriculture GVA growth stood at 4.7%, while in the first quarter of the current financial year, it was recorded at 3.5%. Skymet said it expects sufficiently good rains in the South, West and Northwest India.
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