‘August rainfall could be below normal’

livemint.com:

Edited excerpts: How do you see the monsoon behaving in August? There is a level of uncertainty in prediction and distribution has got distorted. For example, North India is still excess of 26%, more than South and Central, though it should be the other way round. Average precipitation in North India is relatively lower, whereas East India gets the highest average rainfall as compared to the other regions.

East India is the poorest right now in terms of precipitation. Rainfall patterns are very random. Many people argue this is due to climate change and it is difficult to establish.

One thing is clear: in the context of climate change, we are witnessing a tremendous amount of extremity in terms of sway. Both central and southern India were in deficit and now Mumbai has got 97% of the season’s average rainfall already. Predictions in August might not be very good.

August is one of the core monsoon months and the total quantum of rainfall in August is equal to July. August rainfall could be below normal at around 90% LPA, thus causing dry weather. Climate Forecast System this year consistently has been showing a below-normal rainfall sign, but July rainfall is +28%.

There is a tremendous volume of water. And August is expected to see significantly dry weather. A similar situation happened in 2009 when it stopped raining in August.

So far, we retain our monsoon forecast at 94% with an error margin of +/-5%. What are the latest developments with El Nino? Despite the sea surface temperature being above normal at the moment in the ocean, one region is not in sync with Southern Oscillation and El Nino conditions just commenced. El Nino is building up and the alert is there now, meaning in the coming days, El Nino event will