Bank Nifty may yet send Octoberfest invite

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

stock price trends are a crucial aspect of picking their next bet face a tricky task in deciding what is in store for the Bank Nifty index for the rest of the year.
Over the last 10 years, the index has gained in seven instances between October and December.

The question that traders are asking is whether the seasonal trends in Bank Nifty of the past decade will play out again this time too? A lot will depend on how HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank move in this period.

In the last 10 years, the Bank Nifty gave average returns of 17.4% in the December quarter on seven occasions. In the remaining three, the banking index sank 2% on an average.

Traders may, however have a reason to be bullish on Bank Nifty this October.

The index has risen during the month in all the 10 years with the average return being 6.24%.

«Bank Nifty bulls may have been left disappointed as the index gave up most of its gains registered during the month of September, but they need not lose hope as the month of October can bring some cheer to the index going by the past performances,» said Apurva Sheth, head of market perspectives & research at SAMCO Securities. «If the index holds above 43,500 levels, then we can see some upside in October and for the remaining part of the year, too.»

Bank Nifty closed at 44,588.3 on Wednesday, almost unchanged from the previous month.

The index declined 3% last week and underperformed the Nifty by almost 3% in the last three months.

The bank index has been trading in the range of 46,400 — 43,600 since July 2023. During the last two months, this consolidation has prepared the base for itself, according to analysts.

«Considering the past performances, the indices have often formed a bottom during August or September