Beijing’s BRI isn’t in retreat and ‘debt trap’ warnings are falling on deaf ears in the Global South

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is not in retreat, although many have been predicting its untimely demise for some time. Far from shrinking, President Xi Jinping’s signature lending plan is adapting, and in doing so becoming harder to counter. It’s shifting from financing megaprojects to becoming a long-term development partner, particularly for fast-growing economies in the Global South.

Washington and its partners cannot afford to be complacent if they want to stay relevant in countries that will drive growth in the future. Fresh data shows China’s new reach. Engagement last year was at its highest since the BRI began in 2013.

It clocked up $128 billion in construction contracts and about $85 billion in investments. Energy related projects alone reached nearly $94 billion, more than double the year before. Just as important as the headline number is where the money is going.

Investment is increasingly concentrated in renewable energy, battery supply chains, mineral processing and industrial manufacturing. These sectors help strengthen the resiliency of supply chains, which are priorities for Beijing as it tries to gain the upper hand in its rivalry with Washington. Africa, notably, emerged as a top destination, with Nigeria and the Republic of Congo among the major recipients.

China is pairing that investment with expanded trade access. Recently, it announced zero-tariff treatment for imports from 53 African countries starting 1 May. For governments seeking growth and opportunities for their vast populations, that combination is difficult to ignore, especially when US trade policy is so unpredictable.