Why the Iran war is not a setback for China, but a lesson—and maybe even an opportunity to exploit
Those who view President Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran as a blow to China should think again. Beijing will manage any potential leadership change in Tehran as long as the oil keeps flowing, a summit with Trump and President Xi Jinping stays on track, and Washington handles Taiwan—China’s most sensitive red line—with care. Xi’s strategy is closer to the ancient Chinese phrase that notes the benefit of sitting on the mountain and watching the tigers fight: conserve strength while others exhaust themselves, and intervene only if core interests are directly threatened.Beijing doesn’t think of alliances the way the US does.
Partnerships are tools to secure economic and strategic resources, not to provide security commitments. The idea that it would swoop in to rescue either Iran’s clerics or Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro—seized by US forces in January—misinterprets how China works. That reticence was on display during last year’s Iran-Israeli confrontation, when it chose cautious diplomacy and official statements over material military support.
This time, too, it has had little to say beyond criticizing the US and Israel’s attacks and the killing of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while urging Iranian restraint. Beijing is more important to Tehran than the other way around. It serves as a crucial economic lifeline for the heavily sanctioned state as its largest buyer of oil.
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