Bitcoin has been in a month-long consolidation phase, characterized by low-volume transactions within the lower band over the past week.
Recent price action shows BTC finding consistent support around the $29,700 level while encountering selling pressure around the $30,100 region, leading to a narrowing price range.
With macroeconomic data in focus this week, market participants are closely watching the upcoming Fed interest rate decision, which could act as a catalyst for a breakout or a breakdown for the crypto.
Instead of the Fed's interest decision scheduled for the middle of the week, the real game-changer might be the statements made during the subsequent press conference.
Market expectations lean towards a 25-basis-point hike, and this is already being factored in until midweek. However, it's the wording used in the post-rate decision statement that will hold the key, especially for institutional investors in the crypto sector. Should hawkish sentiments persist, the horizontal movement in Bitcoin might face downward pressure.
If things play out that way, the next support line in the lower region could take shape in the $28,500 — $29,000 range. This area finds support from the 2023 rising trend line and the 3-month EMA. Additionally, the Stochastic RSI on the daily chart shows oversold conditions in July, which could help limit any potential pullback.
In this scenario, Bitcoin testing $28,500 in the lower zone could lead to a move toward the $30,500 — $31,500 range if buyers step up their volumes. A quick reach to this region might even trigger a trend towards $34,000, given the possibility of additional purchases.
However, if price action breaks below the uptrend, Bitcoin might experience a downward momentum and
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