It’s not just you. This holiday season feels a little ho-hum. Sure, tree decorations still sparkle, hot chocolate is still sweet and the wind is a little chillier.
But the shopping—the crux of American winter holiday culture—has not started off so bright. On Black Friday, retail spending increased by just 2.5% from last year, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse. Online sales increased 7.5% to $9.8 billion, and the overall weekend is expected to reach at least $37.2 billion in spending, an increase of 5% from last year, according to Adobe Analytics.
TD Cowen went as far as lowering its holiday forecast in a note on Friday to 2-3% year-over-year growth versus a previously estimated 4-5% because of the slow start to the season. The figures don’t suggest any type of economic collapse. But they certainly underscore the challenge facing retailers that can’t seem to convince shoppers to snatch up mediocre deals.
Shoppers are smart; businesses need to be smarter. Retailers have already warned investors that this holiday season might end up softer than previous years. While inflation is slowing down, consumers are still feeling the pressure of increased prices.
Walmart chief financial officer John David Rainey told investors in an earnings call earlier this month that the company saw a “sharper falloff" in consumer spending toward the end of October. He told Bloomberg News the company had become “more cautious on the consumer" over the last quarter. That caution echoed throughout recent earnings reports from retailers ranging from Lowe’s Inc.
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