Bond traders scour US jobs data for clues on Fed's rate plan
US employment report offers final clues ahead of next week's Federal Reserve policy decision.
US bonds edged higher in early trading Friday after ending October with their worst monthly performance in two years. With the election and a Fed meeting days away, a measure of daily yield swings is at its highest in a year as traders position for further losses that could send 10-year yields as high as 4.5% over the next three weeks — compared with just under 4.3% currently.
That positioning makes evidence of a robust US labour market in government data released on Friday «hard for the market to ignore,» said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. While money managers can explain away weak data as a byproduct of strikes and storms, a strong jobs report would remove pressure on policymakers as they lower interest rates.
«I don't think this Fed likes to surprise the markets too much,» he said. McIntyre expects a quarter-point cut at next week's meeting, in line with most economists surveyed by Bloomberg, but anticipates they'll send a hawkish message and «signal they are done cutting for a while.»
The selloff in Treasuries pushed yields higher by roughly 60 basis points over the past month, with the losses sparked in part by an unexpectedly strong reading of September jobs data. Since then, volatility has picked up in anticipation of the face-off between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on Nov. 5 and uncertainty about the Fed's policy path.
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