Can America’s economy cope with mass deportations?

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. When Donald Trump takes office on January 20th, deportations will be a priority. The president-elect has promised the biggest removals in American history, with workplace raids and the revocation of parole programmes.

Stephen Miller, his deputy chief of staff, and Tom Homan, his border tsar, want to use the armed forces to get the job done. Mr Trump has cited “Operation Wetback", a controversial campaign in the 1950s under President Dwight Eisenhower, which threw out around 1.1m people, as an inspiration. What economic consequences might follow a large-scale crackdown? According to the Pew Research Centre, a think-tank, some 11m unauthorised migrants lived in America in 2022, of whom 8.3m were in the workforce.

A recent surge means the number will now be higher. Experts estimate there may be 10m unauthorised workers, representing 6% of the labour force. Many work on building sites and farms, as well as in restaurants.

California, Florida, New York and Texas are home to nearly half of them. The economic fallout from a deportation of this population—whether full or, as is more likely, partial—can be assessed across three dimensions: employment, consumer prices and public finances. Deportations are often discussed as a boon for American workers.

Mr Miller, for example, has said that mass removals would create jobs for Americans and increase wages. Whether that proves to be the case depends on whether unauthorised immigrant labour substitutes for, or complements, native-born labour. The evidence suggests the latter.