
Can Europe keep Ukraine in the fight if America really has bailed?
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. After America announced on March 3rd that it is suspending military aid to Ukraine, it looks increasingly likely that Ukraine will have to depend on Europe. Donald Trump might be persuaded to reverse the suspension, for instance if Volodymyr Zelensky agrees to sign a deal on its minerals industry.
A statement by Mr Zelensky on March 4th said that he was ready to sign, and to start peace talks, though it is not clear what Mr Trump’s response will now be. But the events of the last few days suggests that relying on America for weapons is no longer wise. A back-up is surely needed.
Could Europe fill the gap? On March 4th the European Union announced a programme to “Rearm Europe". And even notoriously cynical financial markets are betting on a response of sorts. The combined market capitalisation of big European defence firms such as BAE Systems, Rheinmetall and Thales has soared by €40bn ($42bn), or 21%, in the past ten days.
These firms are expected to raise their capital investment significantly in the next two years. That reflects optimism that defence spending will rise and that Europe’s military-industrial complex will be reinvigorated. Whether all that translates into a substitute for American aid for Ukraine is far less clear.
Start with money. Although it has given Ukraine €132bn in military and financial aid (more than America’s €114bn), Europe’s big countries could afford to do more. Over the past three years Germany and Britain have allocated less than 0.2% of one year’s GDP to Ukraine, about the same as America has.
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