Trump is focused on Ukraine’s critical minerals. Here’s what Ukraine really has.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The deal President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are expected to sign Friday hinges on a bullish view of Ukraine’s critical mineral wealth. Both parties have reason to project optimism.

But significant questions remain about Ukraine’s mineral endowments and the economic viability of extracting them. The deal would establish a reconstruction fund to be capitalized by revenue from the sale of Ukraine’s “government-owned" natural resource assets, “including, but not limited to, deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, infrastructure, ports, and state-owned enterprises." The U.S. is attempting to diversify U.S.

mineral supply chains away from China. Recent discussions of Ukraine’s mineral wealth have focused on lithium, graphite and manganese, which are key for green energy and electric vehicles, as well as uranium, titanium, tungsten, and rare earths. So how vast are Ukraine’s resources of these prized materials? The answer depends on whom you ask and some arcane but important mining industry terminology.

Those proven resources aren’t exceptionally vast, suggest the United States Geological Survey’s “Mineral Commodity Summaries," considered an authoritative source. In 2024, Ukraine’s share of global production of these minerals didn’t eclipse 1%. For reserves, only titanium and uranium, and potentially graphite, are significant but still small.

Of course, it isn’t surprising that Ukraine’s mining sector may have contracted due to the recent violence. Russia annexed Crimea and began a proxy occupation of Ukraine’s eastern territories in 2013, and launched its full-scale invasion in 2022. Prewar (2013) production levels