Can T-Swift stop a T-cession? What’s next for Toronto’s flagging economy

globalnews.ca:

Warning lights are flashing in Canada’s “economic engine,” and experts say even a stop from pop music’s biggest superstar Taylor Swift next month might not be enough to keep Toronto’s flagging economy out of a “T-cession.”

Like the broad, extended contractions marked by a recession, a T-cession refers to a protracted economic slowdown localized to the Greater Toronto Area, including nearby cities such as Mississauga and Oakville. It’s a phrase coined by Saad Usmani, director of economic research and workforce development at the Toronto Board of Trade, in a report last month.

While Canada has so far avoided a technical recession — typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declining real gross domestic product — Usmani’s analysis suggests Toronto might not be faring as well as other major cities, setting the local economy up for a steeper fall.

Usmani looked at data from payment processor Moneris, showing that since November 2023, total spending in Toronto has been sliding. As of July, spending levels were down nine per cent from 2023 levels, marking the steepest yearly decline compared with other major cities in Canada.

After adjusting for inflation and looking on a per-person basis, the figures are even more stark, with spending down 17 per cent year over year.

Usmani also looked at Statistics Canada’s Real-time Local Business Conditions Index, which factors in business sizes, closures and even road traffic data to monitor relative changes in business activity.

While Canada’s other big six metros have held steady here, Toronto again is showing economic output falling since the start of 2024, Usmani says.

“Toronto has been seeing a substantial decline relative to what you see in other parts of Canada,” he told