Canada on pace to build fewer — not more — homes by 2030 target: CMHC

globalnews.ca:

Canada’s housing supply gap has shrunk marginally since last year, but the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) projects the country will still be short 3.45 million homes by 2030 in order for housing to be affordable for most Canadians.

A CMHC report released on Wednesday revised that estimate down from 3.52 million in its outlook from June of last year. Ontario still makes up most of the shortfall, with a 1.46 million supply gap. However, that is down from the 1.85 million projected last year.

However, the report said despite high immigration levels, “the number of households in the country won’t be significantly higher in 2030 than last year’s projection.” The report added that Canada’s population growth rate is set to fall after 2025, when the current immigration policy comes to an end and Canada sets new immigration targets. Currently, the federal government aims to welcome 500,000 new permanent residents to the country in 2025.

However, if current immigration trends continue to 2030, the projected shortfall in housing units could be as high as four million homes, CMHC said.

“This is because the higher population, and larger pool of income it brings, increase demand for housing,” the report said.

It added that in a scenario where Canada sees lower-than-expected economic growth and the current immigration policies end in 2025, the shortfall would come down significantly, but the country would still be short 3.1 million units.