Canada’s economy keeps its head above ‘recession waters’ — for now
Canada’s economy contracted in the third quarter of the year, but Statistics Canada’s revised data shows the country is still managing to avoid a technical recession.
Real gross domestic product declined 1.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the third quarter of the year, the agency said Thursday. A dropoff in exports drove the decline, StatCan said, with household spending essentially flat in the quarter.
The economic contraction in Q3 was sharper than most were expecting.
StatCan itself had said in early estimates that real GDP likely dropped 0.1 per cent last quarter, while the consensus of economists had expected growth of 0.1 per cent. The Bank of Canada’s latest estimates in October called for 0.8 per cent growth.
StatCan had previously said that the economy shrank modestly in the second quarter as well, but revised figures also released Thursday show real GDP was actually up 1.4 per cent annualized.
Asked to clarify the factors behind the change, a StatCan spokesperson told Global News the revised quarterly figure is the official measure that reconciles the three ways GDP is measured: by income, by expenditure and by value added.
“As more information is made available after the reference period, an updated figure is provided,” spokesperson Carter Mann said in a statement. “This has and continues to be standard practice not just in Canada but internationally and yes, we stand behind this process and the outputs.”
Mann added the revisions for the second quarter “were well within acceptable range for revisions.”
But Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics at Desjardins, says these kinds of “substantial” revisions from StatCan are “somewhat concerning.”
When quarterly GDP data is materially revised
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