Carmakers to lose 20pc of share to Chinese electric vehicles
Traditional car manufacturers including Volkswagen, Honda, Renault and Volvo are forecast to lose more than 20 per cent of their market share by 2030 because Chinese EV specialists such as BYD are making vehicles that are already 25 per cent cheaper.
A report by stockbroking house UBS found the “legacy” carmakers are being left behind on costs and technology even though they are shifting to manufacturing their own EV models.
A UBS team of analysts conducted an extensive assessment of all the components in BYD’s mass-market Seal model, pulling the vehicle apart with the guidance of a specialist manufacturing group, and found there was a $US10,000 ($15,500) cost advantage because of the types of batteries, technologies and components it used.
The Atto 3 electric SUV made by Chinese carmaker BYD. Reuters
The UBS analysts, led by Patrick Hummel and Paul Gong, compared the BYD model against EV pioneer Tesla and electric vehicles made by the “best legacy” manufacturers.
They expect Chinese EV makers to double their global market share by 2030. UBS also did a detailed assessment of the implications for automotive parts suppliers and lithium miners.
For investors in Australia, lithium miners Albemarle, which has made a bid for Liontown, and IGO were rated as a “buy” in the report. Pilbara Minerals was rated as “neutral”. Albemarle has been pursuing Liontown for months.
UBS concluded that European carmakers would suffer the biggest loss of market share and the overall market share of Chinese carmakers would grow from 17 per cent in 2022 to 33 per cent by 2030, driven mainly by the rise of the Chinese EV players as internal combustion engines powered by petrol or diesel waned in popularity, or were phased out.
UBS predicted that
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