‘Not even close’ as warming heads for 2.5 degrees: WoodMac
The world is tracking towards 2.5 degrees warming by 2100 and a massive 50 per cent increase in global capital investment is needed to put it on course for net zero emissions by 2050, and to cap warming at the most ambitious goal of 1.5 degrees in the Paris Agreement.
These are the sobering findings of a Wood Mackenzie study on the progress to low-carbon energy. It found that no major country is on track to meet its 2030 emissions reduction goals, and a major shift of capital expenditure from oil and gas to renewable energy is required.
The sunset for oil and gas in Asia is likely to be later than for the global average, Wood Mackenzie says.
Only the European Union and the United Kingdom are on track to be close to meeting their 2030 goals, while the United States, Japan and South Korea are well behind. China and India are on course to actually increase emissions by then, the study – which brings together analysis from across all the firm’s commodity and technology business units – found.
“The net zero pathway was never going to be easy, but the war in Ukraine has underlined the extent to which the global economy still depends on fossil fuels for energy security,” said Simon Flowers, Wood Mackenzie’s chief analyst. He noted that oil, gas and coal still supplied 80 per cent of the world’s energy needs.
“The good news is that sustainability is alive and kicking. Achieving a 1.5 degrees pathway is going to be extremely challenging, but it is possible,” he said. “Much depends on the actions taken this decade.”
The total annual spend on energy, anticipated to be $US1.9 trillion ($3 trillion) a year in Wood Mackenzie’s base case to total $US52 trillion by 2050, would need to jump to $US2.7 trillion a year in the net zero
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