China and America must get serious about AI risk

AI superpowers can engage in constructive risk management even as they compete vigorously for AI leadership.Moreover, diplomats and experts from our two countries had also met earlier in 2024, in Geneva, for an extended session dedicated to AI risks. It was the first meeting of its kind, and though it didn’t produce any significant results, the very fact that it occurred was an important step, and both sides did manage to identify critical areas of risk that required further work.Now, as the momentum behind AI development and deployment, both civil and military, gathers pace, the US and China need to build on this foundation by pursuing sustained, senior-level diplomacy on AI risks, even as each strives for the lead in the AI race.

They must do so because the risks of AI are real and only growing.For example, as AI capabilities advance and diffuse, non-state actors like terrorist organizations could leverage them to threaten both the US and China—as well as the rest of the world. Such threats could take many forms, including cyberattacks that paralyze critical infrastructure, novel bioweapons that evade detection or treatment, disinformation campaigns that destabilize governments and societies, and AI-enabled lethal drones that can strike anywhere will little or no notice.Nor do the risks stop there.

As the US and Chinese militaries increase their use of AI—shortening decision loops and altering deterrence frameworks in the process—the risk of AI-powered systems inadvertently triggering a conflict or catastrophic escalation will grow. As AI becomes increasingly central to the global banking system, AI-powered trading could cause a market crash in the absence of adequate firewalling.