China knows how to punish countries that offend it

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. China’s diplomatic anger obeys a law of conservation: the total quantity remains constant, but the targets change. Some countries, notably Canada and South Korea, have recently emerged from China’s doghouse.

Instead, as of last month, Japan again finds itself in the kennel, following comments by Takaichi Sanae, Japan’s prime minister, that her country could deploy its armed forces if China ever attacks Taiwan. For China, that crossed a red line. It was an interference in what China perceives as its internal affairs, all the more egregious given Japan’s history as a brutal occupier during the second world war.

China’s harsh words often come with material consequences. This time, it has imposed import bans on Japanese seafood, warned Chinese citizens against travelling to Japan and cancelled Japanese concerts and film releases. What does China achieve in using such blunt economic weapons in bilateral spats? It is tempting to dismiss these as acts of petulance or even self-harm.

Rarely do countries meekly back down in the face of China’s punishment. Ms Takaichi is not about to retract her comments, especially as China’s angry response has bolstered her standing at home. But there is more to it.

China has conducted doghouse diplomacy for two decades, long enough to draw conclusions about its efficacy. Distressingly, although many outside China find its tactics heavy-handed and unbecoming of a great power, there is a brutal logic to them. They are, over time, quite effective at shaping the behaviour of other countries.