China’s oil-demand growth slowdown weighs on global outlook, IEA says
Global oil-demand growth is still forecast to slow to under a million barrels a day this year and next, with a continued slowdown in Chinese consumption weighing on the outlook, the International Energy Agency said. The Paris-based organization estimates that global demand will grow by 970,000 barrels a day this year and by 953,000 barrels a day the next—marginally lower than previous estimates of 974,000 and 979,000 barrels a day.
Total demand is expected to average at 103.1 million and 104 million barrels a day this year and next, respectively. In the second quarter of this year, global demand increased by 870,000 barrels a day with a strong summer driving season in the U.S.
pushing gasoline demand higher, while industrial fuels and petrochemical feedstock in Europe and Asia staged a moderate recovery, the agency said. While demand in advanced economies has shown signs of strength in recent months, in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, it grew at the slowest pace since 2020 in the second quarter, with China’s consumption contracting by 110,000 barrels a day.
“A meaningful shift in drivers is becoming apparent," the IEA said. “Weak growth in China, following the post-Covid surge of 2023, now significantly drags on global gains." China’s downturn is most apparent in naphtha and gasoil-products closely associated with factory and construction activity—with demand for the latter under pressure due to an expanding share of natural gas and battery-powered trucks and vans.
“This suggests that lackluster construction and manufacturing activity has started to weigh on oil use and hints at a pause in the relentless expansion of the country’s petrochemical sector," the agency said. “As a
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