China, Vietnam and Hong Kong may spring surprises in 2025
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. From China’s stock rout to the unwind of the yen-funded carry trade, whose participants, according to some, “eat like a bird and poop like a cow," 2024 was full of surprises. No one expects 2025 to be less exciting.
Here are five unlikely-but-not-improbable events that you might want to consider. Hong Kong property tycoon’s debt workout: Its billionaire families are losing their prestige as a property downturn persists. The question is whether its tycoons will support their listed subsidiaries.
Will they use some of the billions earned in the past to make investors whole? The Cheng family’s New World Development, which has about $4.5 billion of perpetual bonds outstanding, is in the spotlight. Investors are worried the indebted developer may not call its 6.15% notes next June, or worse, defer all coupon payments. While it’s well within New World’s right not to exercise the call, a decision not to repay creditors will send shockwaves across Hong Kong’s financial circles.
Bankers will get nervous, rumours of a debt restructuring at New World will linger on trading floors, and smaller developers will feel the spillover. Luckin Coffee’s return to Nasdaq: After admitting to accounting fraud and being kicked out of the Nasdaq in 2020, Luckin is roaring back as China’s biggest coffee chain. Starbucks is reportedly exploring strategic options in the country, including an outright sale, while Luckin readies itself to enter the US.
Will the company re-list in New York? Its senior management would like to if capital markets are willing to listen to a redemption story. An IPO will revive US investors’ interest in Chinese consumer firms. But it will ignite discussions on how competitive America’s
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