Coal export values slide faster than expected, but volumes to rise

afr.com:

Australian coal export sales will fall faster than expected because higher volumes over the next two years will not be enough to offset a 46 per cent collapse in shipment values, official forecasts show.

The value of thermal coal exports is expected to fall from $66 billion to $28 billion in the 12 months to the end of June 2025, almost 7 per cent below previous forecasts. Metallurgical coal will fall from $62 billion to $41 billion in that time.

Thermal coal prices surged to record highs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but have since eased to pre-war levels.  Peter Davis

Economists at the Department of Industry, Science and Resources earlier this year predicted that the value of commodity exports would slump over the next two years, as weaker demand brought prices down. Those forecasts have been tempered slightly in their latest analysis, with solid growth in export volumes delivering more than was expected just three months ago.

The value of Australian commodity exports in 2025 is now projected to be $352 billion, up from the June prediction of $344 billion.

Resource export values hit a record $467 billion in the year to June 30, which triggered a surge in coal and gas company profits and pushed the federal budget into surplus for the first time in 15 years after corporate tax receipts came in $13.2 billion higher than expected.

Australian miners have benefitted from an increase in demand following international sanctions on Russia, but the end of La Nina and pandemic-related workforce disruptions have helped normalise supply.

At the same time, most resource and energy prices have fallen “as fears rise over the slow pace of economic growth in China”, the department’s economists wrote in the quarterly forecast