Course correction? GDP revamp ‘reduced’ India’s economy size, not increased

India’s economy is now officially smaller than previously thought. New GDP estimates released on Friday based on an updated methodology and base year have reduced the country’s nominal output by over ₹11 trillion ($133 billion), validating earlier concerns about the size of the economyThe downward revision may complicate the government’s fiscal arithmetic for FY26 and FY27, and may also delay India’s chances of becoming a $4-trillion economy, and the fourth largest economy leaving Japan behind.Over the past decade, questions were raised by researchers, economists and policymakers, including former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian, over the methodology used in the 2011-12 series and the size of India’s GDP.GDP data released on Friday by the statistics ministry based on the updated 2022-23 base year, showed India’s nominal GDP in 2025-26 at ₹345.47 trillion ($3.93 trillion), 3.26% smaller than the ₹357.14 trillion figure given in January based on the 2011-12 series.This downward trend (2.9-3.8%) is visible across all four years for which data based on the 2022-23 series has been released.“This has happened because 2011-12 data was likely overestimating figures as organized sector data was largely used to extrapolate figures for other sectors,” an official involved in the GDP calculation process explained, requesting anonymity.The revised GDP takes into account several steps to capture the economy better such as the integration of goods and services tax (GST), expanding the use of double deflation and using improved deflation techniques in case of single deflation, and using survey results to capture the informal economy instead of relying on proxies.P.C.