Crude soars, airspace shut: Why IndiGo’s margins are back under pressure
markets are closed on Tuesday for a public holiday.Brent crude, which hovered around $60 a barrel in early January, climbed to $72 by 25 February on expectations of military action against Iran. Since the conflict began, prices have surged to about $78.
The risk could intensify if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for roughly 20% of global oil flows, faces extended disruption.Higher fuel costs have a direct bearing on profitability. According to JM Financial Institutional Securities, IndiGo’s earnings would contract by about 13% for every $5-a-barrel increase in Brent prices, assuming a stable rupee.Pressure is already building.
Domestic oil marketing companies raised aviation turbine fuel prices by 6% month-on-month in March, a move that will affect fourth-quarter (Q4FY26) earnings. Currency volatility compounds the risk.
IndiGo’s management has previously indicated that every one-rupee depreciation against the US dollar increases costs by about ₹900 crore due to its forex exposure.Operationally, the airline is grappling with significant disruption from airport closures in West Asia, with international routes in the region accounting for nearly 30% of its total capacity. IndiGo reportedly cancelled about 200 international flights on 2 March, close to 10% of its daily operations.The setback comes just as the airline was regaining its footing after severe disruption in December, when a pilot shortage led to widespread cancellations and delays.
IndiGo recovered lost market share, gaining 400 basis points month-on-month to 63.6% in January, in line with November levels, according to data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation. Even so, this remains about 160 basis points below the January 2025 peak,
. Read on livemint.com