Dalal Street Week Ahead: Time to get cautious & defensive after Nifty's swift runup
Nifty not only ended at a fresh lifetime high, but it also closed with gains for the sixth consecutive week.
The markets piled up decent returns despite some signs of consolidation in the second half of the week. The last two days were choppy. However, on a weekly note, volatility, as represented by INDIA VIX remained unchanged.
India VIX ended just 0.71% higher at 12.47 on a weekly basis.
The trading range stayed expanded as the index oscillated in the 498.35-point range through the past five sessions. The benchmark index Nifty50 closed with a strong gain of 701.50 points (+3.46%) for the week.
From a technical standpoint, the previous week has created a gap. In the process, the index has shifted its support zones higher in the range of 20,450-20,550 levels from 20,000.
The Nifty has also closed above its upper Bollinger band. Even if there is a temporary pullback inside the band, the markets may further their uptrend even with the possibilities of some consolidation at current levels.
The behaviour of the Nifty vis-à-vis the level of 21,000 is crucial. If the index can take this level out and stay above it, the markets will open up some more room for themselves on the upside.
However, until this happens, the markets are also staring at entering into a period of consolidation and taking a breather.
Monday is likely to see a quiet start. The levels of 21,090 and 21,265 are likely to act as potential resistance points. The supports come in at 20,700 and 20,580 levels.
The trading range is likely to stay wider than usual.
The weekly RSI stands at 72.44; it has marked a new 14-period high which is bullish. It stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD has shown a positive
