
Debt-to-GDP ratio target: What are the challenges ahead for India
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. A momentous shift in fiscal strategy will take place in the upcoming fiscal year. From 2026-27, the government will track government debt instead of fiscal deficit as its primary fiscal target.
The new standards require the fiscal deficit to be managed in such a way that the ratio of central government debt to gross domestic product (GDP) declines to 50% (+ or -1%) by 31 March 2031. This shift is radical in two ways. One, removing the fixed annual deficit target increases spending flexibility—thus allowing the government to spend more in a crisis without worrying about violating the fiscal compact.
At the same time, fiscal prudence remains intact because the promise to restrain debt automatically checks excessive spending. Second, as the spotlight shifts to debt, investors and rating agencies will focus on the government's ability to service its debt obligations in a sustainable manner. In other words, there is bound to be greater scrutiny of the revenue side of the budget.
India’s current debt position is not bad, despite blips in 2008-09 and 2009-10 (global financial crisis), and a sharper spike in 2020-21 (covid-19 pandemic). Both central and overall government debt (as % of GDP) have been trending downward since the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act was enforced in 2004. Fiscal discipline has been especially strong since the pandemic spending blitz, resulting in the Centre’s liabilities dropping to just under 57% of GDP in 2024-25, down from 63% in 2020-21.
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