Dollar hovers ahead of PCE and tariff onslaught
dollar was headed for a steady week on Friday and a quarterly loss next week as concern about tariffs slowing U.S. growth has pushed down U.S. yields, stocks and the currency.
The euro, at just below $1.08, was headed for its largest quarterly rise in more than a year, gaining more than 4% since the start of 2025 on a combination of peace prospects in Ukraine, dollar weakness, and a leap in benchmark German yields.
The yen was marginally firmer and set for a quarterly gain just under 4%, at 151.19 per dollar — mostly unruffled by a sticky Tokyo CPI reading.
The best G10 performers have been the Scandinavians, which have posted year-to-date gains of near 11% in Sweden and almost 9% in Norway as central bankers seem in no rush to lower rates much further.
Later on Friday, France and Spain publish preliminary inflation figures and the U.S. gets February figures for the Federal Reserve's preferred core PCE inflation gauge.
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Anything softer than the 0.3% month-on-month rise, which economists polled by Reuters expect, could keep downward pressure on the dollar and U.S. interest rates.
However traders are on edge about U.S. President Donald Trump's pledge to announce sweeping new tariffs next week, which could contain trade into the weekend. He already said 25% levies on imported cars would take effect on April 3.
The dollar's decline over the past few months has confounded market expectations for a higher U.S. currency under Trump's tariffs, wiping out long dollar positions and leaving traders unsure